Michiel Ingels, researcher at Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam and part of the ACCREU VU team, took part in a Risky Science Podcast on the evolving landscape of climate risk insurance modeling and what it will take to make those models truly fit for purpose.
Ingels explained how major coverage and methodology gaps persist in most insurance models: about 47% of the studies were prospective, meaning they used climate scenarios or socioeconomic pathways, while the majority were still reactive, using historical data only.
One of the key technical hurdles, according to Ingels, is translating complex climate scenarios into actionable insurance risk metrics. Each stage, from emissions projections through climate impacts, hazard modeling, and ultimately financial risk assessment, adds layers of uncertainty and demands collaboration across multiple disciplines.
Ingels also highlighted the critical role insurance can play in promoting climate resilience, noting that pricing risk accurate can help steer markets toward more adaptive behavior. He also called for new collaborative frameworks that bring together scientists, insurers, and model developers to design transparent, forward-looking models that serve both public and private sector needs.
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