We are pleased to announce the publication of the article “Weather-induced power plant outages: Empirical evidence from hydro and thermal generators in Europe” by Alberto Sergio and Francesco Pietro Colelli. The study provides new empirical evidence on how extreme weather conditions affect the reliability of Europe’s electricity generation system.
Using a novel, granular panel dataset covering daily forced and planned outages at the power-plant level across Europe from 2017 to 2023, the paper investigates how temperature extremes, floods, and droughts influence outage risks across different generation technologies. A key contribution of the study is the distinction between forced outages, which reflect unexpected operational failures, and planned outages, which are linked to maintenance schedules and long-term operational planning.
The results show that extreme weather significantly increases outage risks, but with strong technology-specific patterns. Extreme heat emerges as a major driver of forced outages across all fossil-based technologies and nuclear power plants, likely reflecting increased mechanical stress and cooling inefficiencies. Moreover, high temperatures not only raise the probability of forced outages but also substantially extend their duration, particularly for oil-fired and nuclear plants, suggesting that weather-related failures can be more severe and harder to resolve under extreme conditions.
These findings have important implications for climate risk assessment and energy policy. The average construction year of plants in the dataset is 1984, meaning that much of Europe’s generation fleet was designed for climatic conditions very different from those projected for coming decades. As climate change increases the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events, ensuring the resilience of electricity infrastructure becomes critical for energy security.
The paper discusses both technological and organizational adaptation options, ranging from improved cooling systems and alternative water sources to enhanced planning, forecasting, and fleet-wide management strategies. Overall, the study underscores the need for targeted, technology-specific adaptation measures to safeguard power systems against growing climate variability.
Related publication:
Weather-induced power plant outages: Empirical evidence from hydro and thermal generators in Europe
by Francesco Colelli (CMCC) and Alberto Sergio (CMCC and SLU)