The recently published ACCREU study, “Projected excess mortality from PM2.5 exposure in Europe under future climate and sociodemographic pathways”, quantifies excess mortality attributable to fine particulate matter (PM2.5) across Europe, under a range of climate and socioeconomic scenarios extending to the end of the century.
The analysis indicates that excess mortality in Europe is projected to decline substantially by 2050. Beyond mid-century, however, tragectories diverge sharply depending on the socioeconomic and climate pathway followed globally. The study highlights pronounced differences in health impacts between European countries, and highlights how population aging and urbanization will increasingly shape the future mortality burden.
Results suggest that current, or more stringent air pollution control measures can stabilize or further reduce PM2.5-attributable excess mortality by 2100. In contrast, a fossil-fuel-intensive development pathway, combined with rapid population growth and aging would make additional mortality reductions more difficult to achieve. The findings point to the need for continued improvments in air quality, particularly in urban areas, alongside targeted protection of the older and other vulnerable population groups and sustained investment in the public health systems.
Projected excess mortality from PM2.5 exposure in Europe under future climate and sociodemographic pathways
by Niki Paisi, Andrea Pozzer, Brendan Steffens, Sara Bacer, Johannes Lelieveld
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