As global temperatures climb, Cyprus is experiencing more frequent and intense extreme heat events — a trend that poses growing risks not just to outdoor workers, but increasingly to those working indoors as well.
Our latest research quantifies what this means in practice. Using physical indicators of heat stress calibrated to different work intensities and sun exposure levels, we projected how many additional “unsafe” working days outdoor workers in Cyprus are likely to face in the coming decades under a moderate climate scenario.
The economic implications are striking. By combining these physical projections with labour market data, we estimate that lost economic output from hotter working conditions could reach €101 million by 2030 and €303 million by 2050 (in 2023 euros). Looking at the bigger picture, cumulative losses through 2050 could total between €2.3 and €3.8 billion — representing roughly 21% of all expected climate-related economic damages to Cyprus, assuming no adaptation measures are put in place.
While many European countries are projected to face even steeper productivity losses from climate change, Cyprus’s case highlights how heat stress translates into concrete economic costs — and underscores the urgency of adaptation strategies to protect both workers and the broader economy.
Read the Cyprus Institute’s policy brief
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