As Europe advances its climate adaptation and biodiversity strategies, a new ACCREU report, led by IIASA with partners DTU and GCF, shows how climate change and changes in land use will reshape ecosystems and the services they provide. The study examines wetlands, forests, farmland, species habitats, and pollination under different scenarios, combining ecological modelling with economic valuation.
The findings highlight the enormous value of nature. Coastal wetlands currently provide flood and storm protection worth over USD 10 billion annually to European communities and infrastructure. However, these natural defenses face significant threats from rising sea levels and coastal development, with researchers noting that protecting and restoring wetlands proves more cost-effective than engineered alternatives.
Wildfires are projected to increase in a warmer, drier Europe, especially in southern countries. These fires reduce forest carbon, disrupt timber supply, and put many plants and animals at risk. While some species benefit from small, controlled burns, most wildlife populations decline under the frequent, high-intensity fires projected in future warming scenarios.
Sea-level rise poses an additional threat to agricultural productivity, with low-lying regions in Germany, Italy, and the Netherlands facing substantial risks. This creates challenging trade-offs between immediate food production needs and long-term ecological resilience.
Many European wildlife species face severe habitat loss by 2050, with pollinators among the most vulnerable groups. These insects, including bees and butterflies, currently provide agricultural pollination services valued at more than USD 5 billion annually, a figure that could decline by half by mid-century without habitat protection measures. This estimate is conservative, as it does not include important crops such as fruit trees, which would further increase the overall value.
The report makes clear that Europe is facing difficult trade-offs. While protecting nature may have economic consequences for agricultural productivity, ecosystem-based solutions such as wetland conservation and integrated land use and wildfire management may deliver substantial economic benefits alongside their ecological value. Overall, the study shows that climate change and land use change will have far-reaching impacts on biodiversity and ecosystems, and that the services they provide are at risk. The authors stress that ecosystem-based strategies are essential for Europe’s adaptation to climate change, delivering economic as well as ecological value.