A recently published ACCREU study, “Future health and economic impacts of extreme heat on older adults: a subnational analysis for Europe”, analyses how rising temperatures linked to climate change could affect older adults across 331 European regions, estimating both mortality, morbidity and associated economic costs under different climate and socio-economic scenarios for 2030, 2050, and 2070.
Mortality and morbidity figures do not differ greatly between scenarios in the short term, but they do in the long term. By 2070, heat-related mortality among older adults could reach up to 436,000 cases under high-emission scenarios, and Heat-related morbidity is projected to increase from around 127,000 cases under low-emission scenarios to more than 261,000 cases in all of Europe under high emissions . The economic burden of morbidity could rise from US$312–332 million in the short term to as much as US$929 million by 2070. Costs associated with mortality could reach US$2.3 trillion by 2070 under high emissions.
These results highlight the urgent need for adaptation strategies and the strong economic benefits of emission mitigation, as well as the importance of localised responses to address regional vulnerabilities.
Future health and economic impacts of extreme heat on older adults: a subnational analysis for Europe
By Ane Loroño Leturiondo, Elisa Sainz de Murieta and Anil Markandya