Models
ACCREU is extensively and solidly grounded on consolidated quantitative methods that will be further advanced and innovated during the project research.
The table below displays the different models and methods used to quantify impacts and adaptation in WP2 and WP3.
| Model | Type of model & analysis | What’s new in ACCREU |
|---|---|---|
| DIVA (GCF) | Global coastal impact and adaptation model with NUTS2 or smaller coastal unit resolution for the EU. It models direct damages to physical assets and infrastructure, loss of agricultural dry-land, loss and change of coastal ecosystems (wetlands). Applied to risk assessment and cost benefit analysis. Time horizon: 2030, 2050, 2100. | Use of ACCREU-specific SSPs/RCPs/CMIP6 scenario combinations. Updated sea-level rise scenarios from the IPCC AR6; deeper dive into smaller coastal units |
| Lisflood (JRC) RA2CE-OSdaMage (Deltares) | European flood risk hazard physical model addressing river and coastal floods with 100x100 meter resolution. Applied to asset-level risk assessment and a focus on transportation networks. Time horizon: 2030, 2050, 2100. | Use of ACCREU-specific SSPs/RCPs/CMIP6 scenario combinations. Extension to railroad network and coastal flooding impacts- |
| GLOFRIS (VU) | Global flood risk assessment model for river and coastal floods with 1x1km or EU- NUTS3 resolution. Applied to climate change direct impacts and adaptation policy assessment across domains (Rural, Urban, Agriculture, Industry, Infrastructure, Nature) in the ACCREU combinations of socio-economic and climate scenarios. Time horizon: 2030, 2050, 2100. | Use of ACCREU-specific SSPs/RCPs/CMIP6 scenario combinations. |
| GLOBIOM (IIASA) | Partial equilibrium model operating at NUTS2 level for Europe and 2-degree level for the rest of the world. Analyzes climate change impacts, adaptation and mitigation from 2000-2100 on the agriculture, forestry, and bioenergy sector in the ACCREU combinations of socio-economic and climate scenarios. | Use of ACCREU-specific SSPs/RCPs/CMIP6 scenario combinations. |
| CWatM (IIASA) | Open-source model to examine how future water demand will evolve in response to socioeconomic change and how water availability will change in response to climate. Applied to the ACCREU combinations of socio-economic and climate scenarios. | Use of ACCREU-specific SSPs/RCPs/CMIP6 scenario combinations. Introduce how impacts of climate and land cover change affect water availability, demand from households, industries, and agriculture. |
| Energy response functions (CMCC) | Global and European statistical (partial equilibrium) analysis of energy demand and supply at country and NUTS level conducted on historical data, and then projected to the future. | Use of ACCREU-specific SSPs/RCPs/CMIP6 scenario combinations. Richer historical data. |
| Health&wellbeing econometric models (CA and BC3) | European-scope econometric (partial equilibrium) assessment of health and wellbeing impacts of climate change based upon NUTS1 historical data, and then projected to the future. | Use of ACCREU-specific SSPs/RCPs/CMIP6 scenario combinations. Richer historical data. |
| Labour productivity (CMCC) | Global econometric (partial equilibrium) estimation of climate change exposure response functions of labour supply and productivity at the country level based on historical micro-data, and then projected to the future. | Use of ACCREU-specific SSPs/RCPs/CMIP6 scenario combinations. Richer historical data. |
| ForeFire-Climate (DTU) | Local-to-regional wildfire modelling framework. It combines the Fire Weather Index (FWI) with the open-source ForeFire model. Applied to multi-sectoral fire risks and damage assessment for buildings, infrastructure, forestry. Time horizon: 2030, 2050, 2100. | Use of ACCREU-specific SSPs/RCPs/CMIP6 scenario combinations and downscaled projections based on latest CMIP6/Euro CORDEX scenarios |
| ibis.iSDM (IIASA) | Global, EU-wide model for integrated species distribution up to a 5x5 km resolution. It also estimates current and future habitat suitability for biodiversity. Applied to direct damage assessment for land use sectors leading to habitat loss. | Use of ACCREU-specific SSPs/RCPs/CMIP6 scenario combinations. Better representation of data on climate-related variables |
| Macroeconomic response functions (PIK) | Pan-European “hot-spot” analysis of economic impacts for different climate and socioeconomic futures, estimation of costs of inaction. Applied to represent event-based damage functions for asset losses and long-term impacts on economic growth accounting for persistency of impacts in the economic system. Annual national level estimates, applicable to 2030, 2050, 2100 | Use of ACCREU-specific SSPs/RCPs/CMIP6 scenario combinations. |
| D-HYDRO Suite 2D3D (Deltares) | Hydrodynamic modeling framework for the Netherlands with 100x100m and finer resolution. Applied to generate high-resolution flood hazard maps. | Use of ACCREU-specific SSPs/RCPs/CMIP6 scenario combinations. Expanded to account for impacts to private sector and spillovers to financial stability |
| DIFI (VU) | European partial equilibrium model of the flood insurance market, with a NUTS2 resolution. Applied to risk assessment and cost benefit analysis of adaptation policy for the insurance sector under climate change integrating data from the natural disaster insurance. Analysis for 2030, 2050, 2080. | Use of ACCREU-specific SSPs/RCPs/CMIP6 scenario combinations. Extension to commercial & business insurance. Inclusion of private sector damages. Spatial resolution will be improved from NUTS2 to NUTS3. |
| CFRSS SFINCS FloodAdapt (Deltares) | The Community Flood Resilience Support System is an adaptation-option appraisal tool. The resolution can be finer than100 x100 m. It is applied to local and national partial-equilibrium risk assessment and cost benefit analysis of adaptation policies in 2030, 2050, 2080 | Use of ACCREU-specific SSPs/RCPs/CMIP6 scenario combinations. ACCREU features the first model application in Europe |
| PV analysis (Graz) | Global econometric analysis on supply chain disruptions and risks, focusing on the photovoltaics industry and related economic sectors. Applied to study climate change impacts on and transmitted by the supply chain channels in 2030, 2050, 2080 | Use of ACCREU-specific SSPs/RCPs/CMIP6 scenario combinations. Focus on key sectors relevant for the low-carbon transition expected to experience increasing exposure due to their projected growth. |
The table below displays the different models and methods used to integrate impacts, mitigation, adaptation, and residual damages in WP4.
| Model | Type of model & analysis | What’s new in ACCREU |
|---|---|---|
| ICES-MH (CMCC) | Global multi-country, multi-sectoral Computable General Equilibrium Model with explicit public sector. Applied to cost effectiveness and distributional analysis of climate change impacts and adaptation policies | Use of ACCREU-specific SSPs/RCPs/CMIP6 scenario combinations. Use of ACCREUs new direct impact and adaptation cost estimates. Development of a multi-household version to explore households’ behavioural changes, the role of social transfers and the distributional implications. |
| ICES-REG (CMCC) | Global multi-country, multi-sectoral Computable General Equilibrium Model, with subnational (NUTS 2) resolution for the EU. Applied to the macroeconomic assessment of climate change impacts. | Use of ACCREU-specific SSPs/RCPs/CMIP6 scenario combinations. Use of ACCREUs new direct impact and adaptation cost estimates. |
| WITCH (CMCC) | Global hard linked (climate-energy- economy) dynamic optimization Integrated Assessment Model with national/regional resolution. Applied to cost-benefit, cost-effectiveness assessment of mitigation and adaptation policies. | Use of ACCREU-specific SSPs/RCPs/CMIP6 scenario combinations; development of updated aggregate/sectoral damage functions integrating mitigation, adaptation and residual damages from ACCREUs new impact and adaptation cost estimates. |
| COIN-INT_CGE (GRAZ) | Global multi-country, multi-sectoral Computable General Equilibrium model. Applied to cost effectiveness analysis of climate change impacts and adaptation policies. | Use of ACCREU-specific SSPs/RCPs/CMIP6 scenario combinations. Use of ACCREUs new direct impact and adaptation cost estimates. Develop a recursive dynamic analysis of government debt’s dynamics. |
| REMIND (PIK) | Climate-energy-economy (dynamic optimization) Integrated Assessment Model with detailed representation of energy, industry, buildings and transport, with national/regional resolution. Applied to cost-benefit, cost-effectiveness assessment of mitigation and adaptation policies. | Use of ACCREU-specific SSPs/RCPs/CMIP6 scenario combinations; development of updated aggregate/sectoral damage functions integrating mitigation, adaptation and residual damages from ACCREUs new impact and adaptation cost estimates |
| MIMOSA (UU) | Global climate-energy-economy (dynamic optimization) Integrated Assessment Model, with national/regional resolution. Applied to cost-benefit, cost-effectiveness assessment of mitigation and adaptation policies. | Use of ACCREU-specific SSPs/RCPs/CMIP6 scenario combinations; development of updated aggregate/sectoral damage functions integrating mitigation, adaptation and residual damages from ACCREUs new impact and adaptation cost estimates. A dedicated module (FASST) will address interactions of health-impacts with health-related mitigation policies, and air-pollution co-benefits |
| DIFI (VU) | European Partial Equilibrium model of flood insurance market, 2010-2080, NUTS2 resolution, RA of climate change impact and adaptation policies | New ACCREU damages for new ACCREU SSPs/RCPs/CMIP6 |
| Climate Financial Risk model (UNIVE) | Global model of the finance, banking, insurance, investment sectors with national resolution. Applied to assess the impact of physical climate risk on financial risk. | Use of ACCREU-specific SSPs/RCPs/CMIP6 scenario combinations. |