Over the past year, the ACCREU project has directly contributed to a flagship international climate publication – the United Nations Environment Programme Adaptation Gap Report (AGR) of 2025. In the 2025 edition, released ahead of the 30th COP in Belém in Brazil, the project contributed to a vital update on the size of adaptation costs for developing countries, as well as the levels of international finance flows.
ACCREU has been working to assess the global costs of adaptation for developing countries. The previous work of the project team – as reported in the AGR 2024 – was referenced in the COP29 Negotiation decision text of the new collective quantified goal on climate finance (NCQG). This set a goal, with developed countries taking the lead, to provide at least US$ 300 billion per year by 2035 to developing countries for climate action (mitigation and adaptation).
In view of the timeline for the NCQG, it was necessary for the team to reassess the global costs of adaptation and align it with the year 2035. These results are highly relevant for the continued work stream of the NCQG, and the Baku to Belém roadmap to 1.3T which will be discussed at COP30.
The ACCREU contributions to the Finance Chapter of the 2025 Adaptation Gap Report were to estimate the modelled costs of adaptation for developing countries for the year 2035, drawing on the sector models and results from the project. These were compared to adaptation finance needs as submitted by developing countries in their National Adaptation Plans and Nationally Determined Contributions. The resulting range estimates that adaptation needs are between US$ 310 billion to 365 billion per year for the year 2035. This is over ten times more than the current annual flows of international public finance provided from developed to developing countries, assessed at only 26 billion US$ (for the year 2023, the latest year available). The results indicate a strong need to urgently scale up adaptation finance.
